Inflation can occur when prices rise due to increased production expenses, such as labor and raw materials. All areas of the economy are affected by this problem, including things like consumer purchases. However, amid inflation rates that make food prices rise, Walmart CEO noted that there is a possibility of having a food deflation soon.
Food Deflation Forecast
(Photo : Unsplash/Franki Chamaki)
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve reports that the prices of groceries have increased by 24%, making them one of the most expensive items during post-pandemic inflation. Nevertheless, the rate of inflation has been decreasing. Only 2% ride of the cost of goods has occurred since January. As stated, the overall inflation rate likewise goes down during this time. During November, it reached its lowest point since September 2021, with an annual percentage of only 3.2%.
Doug McMillon, the CEO of Walmart, has forecast that the severe inflation that United States consumers have been experiencing at the grocery store will soon end. It is excellent news for consumers hoping for relief from their grocery costs, but it could be bad news for the economy as a whole if it continues to escalate. Several economists warn that deflation that is severe and persistent could have huge adverse effects on the economy as a whole.
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A decrease in pricing may indicate a lack of demand since consumer spending constitutes a significant percentage of the economy. You might avoid making many purchases today if you believe that prices will decrease in the future. Individuals will spend much less money once a large number of people begin to think that way. However, companies are forced to lay off employees because of this, which can lead to an economic decline.
Moreover, it is much more difficult for central banks to stimulate economic growth in a country that has entered a phase of deflation as opposed to inflation. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to alleviate the pressure on the economy. On the other hand, there is a correlation between rapid deflation and a brief decline in economic activity. Typically, this happens in a highly indebted economy and depends on a steady increase in credit availability to support speculative investment, which raises asset prices. In addition, when credit volume declines, asset values decline, and speculative overinvestments are sold off.
Inflation Rate Forecast in the United States
The surge in inflation in the United States and around the world in 2022 was caused by several different reasons that are responsible for limiting different areas of the economy. These reasons include disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, changes in the labor force related to the pandemic, and spending and supply-chain constraints caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Accordingly, calculating inflation in the United States is accomplished through utilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the International Monetary Fund is responsible for developing this inflation projection in the United States. They anticipate that inflation will remain above average during the entirety of the year 2023, after which it will begin to decline to approximately 2% annually until 2028.
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